Global Club Deals Intelligence Report
Q2 2025 (April – June 2025)
Executive Summary: The “Hard Asset” Rotation
If Q1 was about “AI Software” (OpenAI), Q2 2025 was about “AI Hardware”. The dominant trend of the quarter was the rotation of capital into physical infrastructure—Data Centers, Power Generation, and Defence Manufacturing. Club deals in these sectors (like the GIP/Aligned Data Centers deal and the Anduril raise) sucked up the majority of global liquidity.
Investors realized that AI models are useless without electricity and chips. Consequently, Infrastructure Funds became the new power brokers, often partnering with Big Tech to form “Hybrid Clubs” that blend financial engineering with strategic offtake agreements.
I. The “Hybrid Infra-Tech” Club
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Trend: Big Tech corporates (Amazon, Meta) are joining VC rounds and Infra deals not just as customers, but as equity co-leads.
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Case Study: Scale AI ($1bn), Figure AI ($675m).
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Strategic Insight: The line between “Strategic” and “Financial” investor has dissolved. In the Scale AI deal, Meta and Amazon invested to ensure the survival of a critical vendor. For financial investors (Accel), having Big Tech in the club de-risks the revenue line. These are “Ecosystem Defence” clubs.
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II. The “Sovereign Anchor” Model
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Trend: Mega-LPs (Canadian Pensions, Middle Eastern SWFs) are writing $1bn+ checks to anchor specific strategies.
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Case Study: Ares/CPP Investments ($1.3bn anchor).
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Strategic Insight: Instead of spreading $1.3bn across 10 funds, CPP Investments gave it all to Ares for a single strategy (Asian Data Centers). This “Concentration of Capital” allows GPs to launch massive customized vehicles instantly, bypassing the grueling 18-month fundraising roadshow. It turns the GP-LP relationship into a “Joint Venture.”
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III. The “Carve-Out” Renaissance
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Trend: Conglomerates are shedding assets to fund transition; PE Clubs are the buyers.
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Case Study: Reckitt Benckiser, BP/Castrol, Mallinckrodt/Therakos.
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Strategic Insight: Public markets are demanding “Pure Play” stories. BP needs to be “Green,” Reckitt needs to be “Health.” This forces them to sell “Brown” or “Non-Core” assets. PE Clubs are stepping in as the “Bad Bank” / “Good Home” for these cash cows. These deals are complex, requiring clubs to navigate unions, pension liabilities, and TSAs (Transitional Service Agreements), but the entry multiples are often highly attractive (6x-8x EBITDA).
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IV. Defence: The New ESG
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Trend: Defence Tech has graduated from “Uninvestable” to “Mega-Round” status.
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Case Study: Anduril ($2.5bn).
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Strategic Insight: The $2.5bn raised by Anduril confirms that manufacturing weapons systems is now a validated VC growth thesis. The “Club” here is unique: it blends Silicon Valley risk capital with crossover hedge funds. The thesis is simple: The West has a manufacturing deficit in munitions/drones, and governments will pay any price to fix it. This is a “Government-Backed” revenue play.
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Regional Heatmap (Q2 2025)
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North America: Dominated by AI & Defence. The US is the epicenter of the “Hard Tech” boom. Capital is flowing into factories (Anduril) and data centers.
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Europe: The “Distressed” Opportunity. Europe is seeing more “Rescue/Carve-Out” deals (Therakos, Datagroup) as the economy lags. SWFs are cherry-picking trophy real estate in Paris/London.
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Asia: Infrastructure led. Japan is the hotbed for digital infrastructure debt (Ares deal) as it modernizes its grid.
Outlook for H2 2025
As we move into Q3, watch for the “Rate Cut Rotation.” With inflation stabilizing, the first Central Bank cuts will likely trigger a release of pent-up LBO supply in Europe. We expect the “Carve-Out” trend to accelerate, with larger industrial conglomerates in Germany and the UK finally capitulating to break-up demands.
